Expert Panel on Projections Links
See below for details on some of the relevant models for projections.
The GAINS model explores synergies and trade-offs between the control of local and regional air pollution and the mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions. Its European implementation covers 43 countries in Europe including the European part of Russia. GAINS estimates emissions, mitigation potentials and costs for the major air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM, NH3, VOC) and for the six greenhouse gases included in the Kyoto Protocol. The GAINS model and its predecessor, the RAINS model, have been applied to assist key policy negotiations on improving air quality in Europe.
The Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) is a scientifically based and policy driven programme under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). The programme was established to provide regular feedback to Governments and subsidiary bodies under CLRTAP, thus supporting international cooperation for solving transboundary air pollution problems.
The EMEP model has been extensively used to describe the atmospheric dispersion of air pollution in Europe and to assess impact of the Thematic Strategy for Air pollution. It relies on the collection of emission data, measurements of air and precipitation quality and modelling of atmospheric transport and deposition of air pollution.
TM5 is a global, hemispheric atmospheric chemical transport model that uses processed meteorological fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for simulations of greenhouse gases, of atmospheric transport, for validation of transport characteristics and for full chemistry simulations. The TM5 model was used to assess the impacts of reducing ozone precursors (i.e. methane) on the hemispheric ozone concentrations and on global climatic change.
As a partial equilibrium model for the European Union energy markets, PRIMES is used for forecasting, scenario construction and policy impact analysis up to the year 2030.
It simulates a market equilibrium for energy demand and supply within the European Union and it focuses on market-related mechanisms influencing the evolution of demand and supply. PRIMES is used mainly in the field of energy and environmental policy to analyse, for example, impacts of carbon emission trading and of renewable and energy efficiency policies on energy markets within each of the 27 Member States.
For more information visit the E3Lab
of the National Technical University of Athens.
The POLES model is a world simulation model for the energy sector. It works in a year-by-year recursive simulation and partial equilibrium framework, with endogenous international energy prices and lagged adjustments of supply and demand by world region. Developed under EU research programs at the Institute of Energy Policy and Economics (IEPE) and currently also operated, expanded and maintained by the IPTS, the model is fully operational since 1997.
The CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) model is a tool for exante impact assessment of agricultural and international trade policies with a focus on the European Union. As an economic partial comparative static equilibrium model for agriculture, its core consists of two interlinked modules: about 250 regional aggregate programming models covering the EU27, Norway and Western Balkans at the NUTS 2 level and a global spatial multi-commodity model for agricultural commodities, which together allow calculation of a wide range of economic and environmental indicators. A spatial downscaling component allows impact assessment at the 1x1 km grid level for EU27. CAPRI is written in GAMS and steered by a Graphical User Interface realized in Java.
As part of the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme a Cost Benefit Analysis model called “CAFE-CBA” was developed as a a support-tool for decision-makers. In combination with the PRIMES model (that provides information on national energy balances), IIASA’s GAINS model (which assesses emission reduction potentials and abatement costs), the GEM-E3 model (which assesses macro-economic impacts of policy and development) and EMEP (which models the pollution climate and impacts), the model assesses the costs and benefits of AQ policy proposals.
The tool assesses the state of the environment in 2000 and 2020, and looks at the benefits of current policies over this period. Results are presented for the following effects:
- Effects on human health (mortality and illness)
- Effects on infrastructure materials (buildings)
- Growth in crops
- Changes in ecosystems (freshwater and terrestrial, including forests)
The analysis is based on economic valuation for those effects where it is possible. For other important effects of air pollution, such as ecosystems and cultural heritage, no economic valuation is carried out.
GEM-E3 is an applied general equilibrium model simultaneously covering World regions or European countries and focusing on interactions between the economy, the energy system and the environment.
The model is less detailed than a sectoral partial equilibrium model (such as PRIMES, POLES, TREMOVE or GAINS). However, it can simulate the responses to environmental policies through reduction of energy use and fuel substitution as well as through reductions of overall economic activity. GEM-E3 analyses also substitution between energy intensive and less energy intensive activities.
GEM-E3 is often used to complement other models tools such as PRIMES, POLES, TREMOVE or GAINS.
TREMOVE is a policy assessment model, designed to study the effects of different transport and environment policies on the transport sector. The model estimates for technical and non-technical measures and policies such as road pricing, public transport pricing, emission standards, subsidies for cleaner cars etc., the transport demand, modal shifts, vehicle stock renewal and scrappage decisions as well as the emissions of green house gases, air pollutants and the welfare level.
TREMOVE models both passenger and freight transport. The model covers all inland urban and interurban transport modes - road, rail, water and air transportation. It covers the period 1995-2030. At the moment, input databases are calibrated to feed the model for 31 countries (EU-27 plus Croatia, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey).